Why Russia will eventually win in Ukraine

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Although journalists and the US government insist that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine, it is not. Indeed, Russia is winning and will inevitably emerge victorious. I served eight years in the US Army Reserve as an intelligence analyst, and here’s why all the hype is nothing but false information.

Every day journalists and government officials conspire to appease America with a propaganda war in Ukraine in which Ukraine is suffering one defeat after another against Russia. Only occasionally will the truth slip out. The reasons for this are quite simple.

First, it keeps their fanatical base, the Democratic voters, happy. This is an attempt to build general public support for American involvement in the war—even though America has no national security reason to get involved (the US should focus on its own borders instead) and even though Congress never declared or authorized war. Use of military force.

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There is no good intel in war

The truth is the complete opposite of what the ruling class would have everyone believe. And what is the truth? It is difficult to say at the micro level but at the macro level it can be said that Russia is winning and will emerge victorious in the end.

The main reason it’s so difficult—impossible, in fact—to tell what’s happening at the micro level (strategic and operational levels) is because of the confusion that saturates the battlefield. And misinformation — deliberate lies — comes from everyone invested in the war.

For example, Russian officials, their allies, and their media want to present themselves in the best possible light. It’s not all that is being said from Russian officials and the media is misleading, but some of it is. This is how war goes. They want to make their side look good and the enemy look bad.

Ditto for the American government-journalist uniparty. Then there are so-called independent bloggers, influencers and more. They are all selling something (mostly themselves) and so if their audience wants to hear that Ukraine won, they will tell them. If their audience wants to hear that Russia won, they will tell them.

Simply put, when something is high-profile—popular, in a sense—everyone wants to be in it for their own benefit, and there are plenty of people willing to lie for various reasons. So this is distorted information from the American ruling class, from Ukraine, from Russia, and even from independent sources that are anything but independent.

Of course, this is not very surprising. Anytime a war or national security issue becomes high-profile, confusion flows like a river breaking free from a broken dam. At the height of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, there was no shortage of intelligence. And while much of it was undoubtedly good, much of it was undoubtedly misleading. After all, wars were the center of global attention and competing factions sought to manipulate them for their own ends.

On the flip side of things, I contributed to multiple intelligence assessments in target areas that, at the time, were considered boring; Nobody cares about them. Intelligence on them was often hard to come by. But what we apparently got was good, because events since then have shown that our assessment was generally correct.

In short, to get solid intelligence on a war or national security issue, don’t wait until people pay attention to it. Collect intel when no one cares, and then it will be quality intel from which high-confidence assessments can be made.

But if this is nothing more than confusion about the Russia-Ukraine war, how is it possible to assess the macro level—that Russia is winning and will win? This is possible because Russia can fail in many cases and still win. And it is also possible to assess because America is supporting Ukraine, and America has proven that it is no longer capable of winning the war.

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Russia will win because America cannot

A Russian conquest of Ukraine is defined as Russia occupying, holding and annexing any part of Ukraine. Any nation that can take sovereign territory from another has objectively won. And even now it appears that this has already happened in Ukraine. Russia appears to have permanently occupied parts of eastern Ukraine. It could very well connect more.

After all, Russia will seize and exploit whatever American holds on the battlefield or through the black market. How they can very well use (despite official statements) all the material America has left in Afghanistan. The captured and exploited material would be a major intelligence victory for Russia and have consequences for America for years to come.

After all, it will be another losing battle for America. America usually loses in Iraq. (While it prevented Saddam Hussein from reviving his WMD program, it failed to prevent hostile actors like Muqtada al-Sadr from influencing the nation.) It also lost in Afghanistan, where the Taliban now rule again. (Terrorist organizations have safe havens there and the Chinese are moving in.) And it’s also lost in Georgia. (Russia started a war in Georgia in 2008 and occupies and controls that region to this day.) America has lost every war in the 21st century, and so it is easy to assess that the side it is supporting in the Russia-Ukraine war will lose as well.

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The ruling class will not admit its defeat

It goes without saying that the American ruling class will admit defeat. But this is because it is unable to understand what victory is. It sees victory as defeat and vice versa. Russia may indeed suffer massive losses in personnel, weapons and equipment, but, again, it will win if it captures and annexes parts of Ukraine. The American ruling class—military and civilian leaders—believes that an ugly victory is not a victory. But that, of course, is not true. An ugly win is still a win.

So regardless of what people want in a Russia-Ukraine war, the outcome will be Russia winning and Ukraine losing. And Ukraine lost because it depended on America, who cannot win the war.

Ignore the confusion coming out of the Russia-Ukraine war and focus on this basic fact. After that, the only question remained was what exactly would a Russian victory look like.

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