Credit must be given where credit is due. Simplicius76 is an anonymous substack writer who has written the best analysis I’ve seen of the strategic and tactical dimensions of the war in Ukraine and the impending Russian invasion. Russia is doing what it has done throughout history where it prevails—namely, Maskirovka (in the guise of its plans and movements). Russia is moving troops and equipment to the fronts in the north, east and south. They are currently attacking several different sectors, forcing Ukraine to frantically deploy troops to try to deal with new threats that are emerging like wildfires.
Here are links to four of Simplicius76’s recent articles A must read if you want to understand what happened and what will be revealed in the coming weeks. The first article discusses in depth the erroneous assumptions about the expected Russian invasion:
The third article lifts the veil around Russian and NATO ISR activities (aka Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) and how spy satellites and other collection systems make it harder to hide what a military is doing.
The most recent article by Simplicius76, SITREP: Update 2/18 – Major War Confirmed Imminent, presents evidence that points to a dramatic expansion in Russian aggression against Ukraine.
His essay, All Seeing Eye: Can Russia Break Through the West’s ISR Overmatch?, provides great insight into how modern intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems have dramatically changed warfare in the 21st century. Russia could no longer build and deploy an army in secret, as in Operation Uranus, which attacked the German army besieging Stalingrad from the north and south and eventually pinned down Van Paul’s Sixth Army. But that doesn’t mean Russia can’t hide where it’s planning to attack or deceive Ukraine and NATO about its intentions.
I continue to believe that the increased military operations by Russia over the past three weeks are part of an offensive that many in the West believe will come in the spring. The next few weeks will mark a watershed in the war in Ukraine.