What will happen in the future? Is there a way to know?
A strategy that predicts the future better than any other is predicting the market.
Stock market is one. It allows people to bet on the company’s potential. Markets often make wrong predictions, but rising stock prices are a better predictor of company success than 100 executives or 10,000 politicians. Falling stocks are also good predictors.
Success because the prediction market The wisdom of the crowdWhich is also the name of a book by James Surowiecki.
The crowd? It seems strange. A crowd can be like…a crowd! Stupid and out of control. “But if a crowd is big enough and diverse enough,” Surowecki says, you have access to much more knowledge than you would if you asked an expert or even a group of experts.
We saw it in old TV programs Who wants to be a billionaire? A contestant can call an expert or have the audience vote. “Experts” can be geniuses. The TV audience was certainly not the expert, but they got the answer right more often than the “experts.”
Defense Department officials once wanted to use the same principle to open a market that could predict where terrorist attacks might occur. But then some ignorant senators called the idea “outlandish”. The Defense Department scrapped the idea.
Today politicians are killing another good idea: PredictIt.org. It is a website that allows Americans to bet on elections like the political futures market
As I write, Predictit’s bettors say Joe Biden has a 27 percent chance of becoming our next president; Ron DeSantis has a 21 percent chance; Donald Trump has a 20 percent chance.
That is useful information. But American bureaucrats want to stop it, working in a monstrous agency called the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Why? Did PredictIt steal user funds? no Did they lie to people? No. Someone’s loss? No!
In fact, its strangeness is cited by media around the world. Average odds from my site, ElectionBettingOdds.com, PredictIt and foreign betting sites.
Over time, PredictIt’s odds have generally been more accurate than those of pollsters and pundits.
In 2020, bookies correctly predicted a Biden win and called almost every state correctly.
The shutdown is “extremely unfair,” says Brandi Travis, PredictIt’s marketing boss in my new video. “Heartbreaking.”
This is it!
Why can’t Americans bet on what we want? People bet on sports, cards, horses etc. The stock market is a kind of gambling! We accept adults! Leave me alone!
Arrogant CFTC bureaucrats won’t even answer a question about why they are killing a useful website.
But it may be due to crony capitalism!
A larger, rival betting site, Kalshi, which bets on things like inflation rates and petrol prices, now wants to take election bets too. Kalsi sought permission from the CFTC. Company officials then met with the CFTC dozens of times. They even hired a former CFTC commissioner, hoping that would help (I hate Washington).
In their application, they alleged that PredictIt (their only potential competitor in election betting) operates “without adhering to many…rules”.
The result? So far, regulators are moving toward a ban Both Kalshi and Prophecy.
Your government, busy at work, is crushing innovative competition.
Crush it for most of you, that is.
The CFTC allows very Rich people to bet on a site called American Civics Exchange. But to be eligible to bet, the government says you must have $10 million in assets.
Ordinary Americans are out of luck, unless the prophecy meets a stroke of luck in court, where it is fighting for its life.
Once again American bureaucrats kill something good.
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